It all came together for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
At the Power Five conference just four weeks ago, there were 13 undefeated or losing teams. That number was reduced to 11 a week later while adding a two-loss playoff contender in No. 14 LSU.
Of those dozen teams, only five have emerged as realistic playoff options with one Saturday left in the regular season.
No. 1 Georgia is a suspension en route to the SEC championship game against the Tigers. Likewise with No. 2 Michigan entering the Big Ten championship against Purdue. No. 3 TCU is in great form despite losing in the Big 12 championship game. No. 4 Southern California faces a rematch with No. 11 Utah to settle the Pac-12.
And at No. 5, the committee weighed in on Ohio State and Alabama, landing on the Buckeyes, who didn’t fall far behind after an ugly loss to the Wolverines.
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The penultimate 2022 playoff rankings show how easy deliberations have become for the committee, which should be able to avoid much controversy in choosing this year’s field. These teams on the verge of a playoff spot lead Tuesday night’s winners and losers:
WINNER
Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Southern California
At least two of that foursome are still suspended in the playoffs: Georgia and Michigan can lose on Saturday and still end up in the semifinals. Iowa State’s loss last weekend, combined with No. 9 Clemson’s loss to No. 19 South Carolina, dramatically increased the odds of TCU losing the rematch to No. 10 Kansas State and still finishing in the top four could. The only one in this group without such a safety net is USC, but even the Trojans have some room for error as they head into the Pac-12 championship game.
State of Ohio
The only debate that mattered ahead of Tuesday’s release was whether Ohio State or Alabama would finish at No. 5 and be poised to potentially fill the void should USC suffer a second loss to Utah. Being tapped for that key ranking doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are a lockdown No. 4 should the Trojans lose; Even with a loss, USC could still provide OSU with a lower win record and better performance against a common No. 21 Keeping Notre Dame at bay. But that penultimate ranking strongly suggests there are only five teams that stand a chance of playing in the semifinals – and the Buckeyes are the fifth and final team in the conversation.
The American
As expected, both teams in the American Championship game were ranked by the committee: Tulane in 18th after beating Cincinnati and Central Florida in 22nd after an emotional rivalry win over South Florida. This guarantees that Saturday’s winner earns the Access Bowl offer for the New Year’s Six as the top team in the Group of Five and fends off a challenge from Sun Belt members Troy and Coastal Carolina.
LOSER
Alabama
Finishing behind Ohio State officially ends No. 6 Alabama’s chances of making the playoffs as there isn’t a reasonably plausible scenario that could unfold this weekend and open up two spots in the four-team field. Doomed by narrow losses to No. 7 Tennessee and LSU, wins in just one of those games would have earned the Crimson Tide the SEC West crown and a conference championship game spot. As the West won 11-1, Alabama would have finished in the top four on Saturday and could have secured a playoff spot by beating the Bulldogs or by losing USC to the Utes.
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The ACC
With four teams in the playoff rankings but two at the bottom — No. 23 North Carolina and No. 25 North Carolina State — and none higher than No. 9, the ACC brings up the bottom of the Power Five. The SEC has six teams in the top 25, including three in the top seven. The committee ranked six teams from the Pac-12, all in the top 17. The Big Ten has three ranked teams, all in the top 8: Michigan, OSU, and No. 8 Penn State. And while the Big 12 also has only three teams in the top 25, two end up in the top 10 in TCU and Kansas State.
